Like Churchill’s description of democracy, maybe a UBI is a terrible idea, but better than the others.

INTRODUCTION

A few years ago, after reading a book with a catchy title, “Basic Income,” I became intrigued with the ’concept of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) program. Subsequently I organized a small group discussion that focused on the different impacts possible with a UBI, the sum of which could be a better society.

 

In that conversation, in grading two-dozen different topics as to the relevance of a UBI, we concluded that such a program could be connected to beneficial changes in everything from affordable housing to creative expression to entrepreneurial activity to improved healthcare to educational outcomes to income inequality to economic mobility.

 

Whether the design of current UBI experiments can be scaled sufficiently to move the societal needle overall is a separate issue that is nonetheless completely connected.

 

As always, in Montaigne’s words, is the game worth the candle?

 

DEFINITION

In a UBI program, every adult receives monthly either direct payment of a certain amount of money or a debit card entitling them to that money. There are no strings to its usage. The tax liability varies according to jurisdiction and the legislation behind the UBI.

 

(Note: in the United States, the UBI idea has been modified as a Guaranteed Income (GI) program. This update will use UBI and GI interchangeably as the reasoning process is basically the same.)

 

BACKDROP

There are about 40 million people living below the poverty line, although it is acknowledged that the definition of poverty is subject to analysis, particularly around in-kind and other welfare receipts.

 

More positively, let’s assume a UBI of $1,000 per month for every adult. To the lower end of the income scale, this would be a godsend. Would some of them use the money unwisely? Sure, like everybody. Interestingly, the admittedly small UBI experiments to date indicate that the funds are used in very prosaic ways, groceries and retail leading the way.

 

For middle class families with college age children who are too affluent for programs like FAFSA and too strapped to pay the exorbitant cost of college, the UBI would be welcome for sure. At the very upper end of the income spectrum, the UBI money would be irrelevant. Chump change as it were.

 

At present, roughly half the population has no net worth, i.e., assets minus debts are zero or worse. UBI would not remotely solve that comparison. There are multiple barriers involved, beginning with inadequate K-12 education and continuing through a long list of historical restrictions, many of them based on racist attitudes, on both home ownership and jobs.

 

BENEFITS

A UBI or GI is within a growing trend toward giving cash grants: reportedly seven million people in some 37 countries have been beneficiaries. In less developed countries, a reduced death rate for women and children has been one benefit. Improved school attendance, better nutrition, and enhanced use of health services have been noted. An advocate like the Jain Family Institute believes direct payment results include improved school grades, better high school graduation numbers, and increased income.

 

A study of poor mothers revealed that receiving cash directly has an indirect beneficial impact on brain activity of babies, a similar gain in fact to having a tutor in school.

 

As privatization has moved different government functions away from the public polls, only large companies and organizations have benefitted. A UBI would put more decision-making in the hands of individuals whose financial pictures are so tightly circumscribed that one could argue they have no true choices in their current situations.

 

There is a drug arrest every 25 seconds; half of the population has a family member or friend who is addicted. Hopefully there is an ongoing shift toward treating addiction as a health issue, not as a client list for profit-seeking prisons. The reasons for addiction are multiple; stress is one. The long-term use of antidepressants is associated with an increased risk of having a heart attack. About one in eight of those over twelve years of age took medication in the past month compared with one in twelve twenty years ago. How many ways can you spell stress! Enter a UBI benefit.

 

A UBI could lessen the issue of on-going stress among those with overly tight budgets. Those with discretionary money handle stress with drugs and alcohol, knowing their jobs are more or less assured. At the lower end of the scale, stress is exacerbated because the power relationship between a typical jobholder in a corporation and his or her boss is completely lopsided. A UBI would be helpful here.

 

Income, like education, facilitates choice. If all monies received by a person go for immediate needs like rent, food, and transportation, choice is virtually nonexistent, to the benefit of credit card companies or payday loan operators, both of whom charge extremely high interest rates.

 

Ah yes, some would take UBI money, buy surfboards and head to the beach. The beaches would become crowded and then have to charge for surfing privileges, which would mean the UBI money went for naught. Ridiculous scenario. Some might no longer carry the moniker of starving actor or actress or artist; they would live on the UBI. Okay reader, try living on $1,000 per month. Maybe the money instead would go for acting classes or sessions with successful artists. This is bad?

 

Since the 2021 expanded child credit reportedly lifted three million kids out of poverty, is it not a bit of a proof point for a well-constructed UBI?

 

In 2021, the maximum income tax credit per child was lifted from $2,000 to $3,600, payable in cash regardless of the filers tax situation. Many Republicans are in favor of these types of tax credits; the opposition is insistent on everybody working even though some recipients cannot from a health standpoint. Note there is a continuing, somewhat unspoken premise, i.e. that people do not want to work, when the opposite is continually proven to be the case. This does not contradict the desire by all people for respect regardless of their spot in the job pecking order.

 

Big organizations, whether they be the AMA or NEA or IBEW, are fundamentally about job protection for their members. Overall, in 1950, 10% of employees were in occupations that required licenses; now it is 25%. And reciprocity among states is uneven. While a UBI would not create a level playing field, it would make it more economically feasible for individuals to pay the dues needed to enter certain occupations.

 

What will be the impact of AI? It is possible that those initially in control of its usage will win economically, as always, while job losses will affect those with limited choice. For certain, this is not clear; many white collar jobs may disappear. Low-paid service jobs will remain – these need a UBI.

 

 

 

THE BIGGER PICTURE

Conceptually, a UBI is about figuring out what kind of society we want. That is the overriding question, more substantive and important than the specific monetary details. Yes, a UBI would be hugely expensive, net of cost savings from a reformed and smaller existing welfare system. (So are many other government programs, more than a few of which seem of questionable merit.) Debates will be inevitable on which current entitlements would wither away with a UBI.

 

When the richest five men in the world double their net worth in four years, nobody worries about the inflationary impact of all those incremental billions. At the same time, there is a valid question about the inflation which could be brought about by a UBI, simply because of its universality. One might ask whether that concern should be greater than the protracted role of the Federal Reserve in pumping money into the system in the everlasting chase for a higher quantitative GDP?

 

Theorists on both sides of the political spectrum recognize the value of bolstering families, which includes greater aid, e.g., a UBI. Rebuilding families can be synonymous with rebuilding communities.

 

Amitai Etzioni, recently deceased, advocated a Society built on Community; he labeled himself a “Communitarian.” Because he regarded the family as a moral anchor, he advocated extended child care and parental leave benefits, plus flexible working hours and tougher divorce laws. He was in favor of a national service requirement for young people and wider participation in jury duty and the military. A UBI fits in nicely with this view of how society should function.

 

The economist Herman Daly challenged the idea of GDP growth being the end-all. For one, its calculation ignores associated costs. If the problems caused by carbon-based energy had been confronted when Daly was prescient in his thoughts, our current climate control dilemma would be slightly less daunting. A UBI speaks to quality of life more so than quantity.

 

Milton Friedman, famously quoted as saying that the mission of a company is to make money period, used as part of his reasoning that CEOs are no more competent outside of their company than the average person. He noted that if profits come to be considered immoral, then control defaults to the centralized power of government. A UBI is pro-individual, from the janitor to the CEO. It keeps government at a suitable distance from daily decision-making.

 

**

The year 2023 saw major unionization victories. The number of strikers was reportedly nearly quadruple that of 2022 and almost eight times that of 2021 for the same period. Even healthcare was involved: in October, 75,000 nurses and doctors struck Kaiser Permanente and won not only a 21% wage increase over four years but “improvements in training, professional development and staffing.”

 

Irritation over the discrepancy between rich corporate profits and resistance to paying a living wage has meant that young people without any prior philosophical allegiance to the concept of unions recognized the logic of coordinated action. And relatively new union leaders were more strategic in their approach.

 

The hypothetical size of a UBI in theory could have a dampening effect on the trend toward more unionization. Note that the latter is coming from a very low starting point compared with historical levels when the focus was manufacturing jobs, the majority of which have gone elsewhere.

 

However, both a UBI and unionization are aimed at the same target: unfair differentials in compensation at the vast majority of large organizations. Perhaps they would be complementary pieces of a program.

 

Some countries have either formal or informal restrictions on the ratio of CEO compensation to the lowest income level in the company. The prevailing American attitude seems to be that the CEO’s out-sized compensation was earned entirely through hard work and personal merit; i.e., the people below the CEO office had nothing to do with the CEO’s success.

 

EXPERIMENTS

Going through the details of each experiment would require a separate, lengthy document. There are no two alike and political considerations mean that forward visibility on the programs is not high. Website information is either incomplete or rather dated. It is clear that the organizers of UBI programs are more focused on daily implementation than on winning plaudits from prospective major donors.

 

In 2024, there are three dozen cities in the USA with on-going UBI experiments. Full disclosure: the aggregate money involved is less than Apple brings in every day, but still, it’s a start. Maybe it becomes an initial entry on the road where the signs says, “a viable, evidence-based program that puts a slight dent in gross income inequality is … good.”

 

Pilots are being run using leftover COVID money, $500 or so per person. Conceptually there could be a connection to the temporary child tax credit, which was $250-300 per child per month. An estimated

1.5 million parents (3% of total employment) said they would stop working if that credit was permanent. Looking at the total picture, society could easily be better off with more mothers able to be with their children instead of paying for expensive childcare.

 

The most widely publicized, in part because it was one of the first, UBI experiments was in Stockton, California in 2019. It provided $500 on a debit card on the 15^th of each month; median household income was $46,000. Mayor Tubbs, who began the program, is no longer in that position; instead, he is  Special Advisor to California Governor Newsom for Economic Mobility and Opportunity. Tubbs is the founder of the country’s Mayors for Guaranteed Income.

 

With the federal childcare monies ending, some states are taking up the slack. Colorado is providing $1,200 per year for children under six in households earning less than $35,000. Chicago has recently joined the long list of cities experimenting with a UBI; it encompasses 5,000 participants who will receive $500 a month for one year. Alaska’s Permanent Fund, essentially an oil revenue based UBI, provides money directly to virtually all its residents.

 

The Newark Movement for Economic Equity experiment with guaranteed income included 400 residents, who received $6,000 for each of two years. Residents were below 200% of the poverty line, over 18 and negatively affected by COVID. The vast majority were black single women. Overall average household income was less than $9,000. Two-thirds of the money received was spent at retail and grocery stores.

 

**

The Kenya Giving Directly program had an initial design that entailed having it run from  2017 until 2030. Involving 21,000 people, those from two-twelve years of age were to receive $0.75/day; others would get a lump sum. The organization behind this effort has expanded into multiple countries, including the USA with a GI program. Overall it has raised more than $700 million to reach 1.5 million people.

 

More recently, the current war between Israel and Hamas has brought forth the suggestion of a UBI for Palestinians in Gaza. Raja Khalidi, Director General of the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute stated that $200/month would cost $5 billion to the point of economic recovery, when it would sunset.

 

 

COMMENTARY

Thinking about a UBI brings to mind the persistent question: hypocrisy or fundamental change?

At the micro level, the multibillionaire founder of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, offers tuition reimbursement for staff meeting certain criteria. He simultaneously fights any attempt at unionization. He wants total control of his “beneficence.” A UBI alters the control equation somewhat.

 

If Schultz wanted to help more people instantly, given the apparently addictive nature of his product, he could reduce the price of his coffee. Stunningly, he might actually lose customers as the allure of paying more would be diminished and people would realize a cup of coffee from the place around the corner from Starbucks is just as good. Schultz simply adds a lot of sweeteners, ultimately leading its customers to provide good business for fitness locations.

 

Taylor, Mick, and Madonna could cut their ticket prices, instead of raking in huge revenues and then making charitable donations. Ah, the loss of control again, democracy run amuck if the masses had money in their pockets instead of it being concentrated in a very few.

 

Put differently, fabulously wealthy people pick and choose their policy passions: Bezos re homelessness (while he fights unionization), Arnold: drug prices and education; Bloomberg: smoking, sugar, gun control. Perhaps individuals with UBI supplements would like a bit of purchasing independence, in this case to be used for their policy passions.

 

Newsflash: New York City’s big philanthropists have discovered that their billions cannot solve the city’s multiple problems. Perhaps they might recognize their essentially top-down approach could be beneficially flipped from a power and control standpoint, i.e., a UBI. Nah, who gives up power!

 

**

Society is being torn apart. Leaving aside the multiple reasons, what are some of the choices of the super-wealthy:

Live totally separate lives – already do

Write periodic big checks for issues of their choosing — already do (some rethinking happening)

Resist any changes to the tax code – already do

Ignore societal problems only addressed in part through higher taxes and loophole closings

Maintain a disbelief that the masses will rise up in violent protest

Philosophically hide behind the historical failures of many government programs

Park their excess money somewhere else, e.g., Swiss bank accounts (or places more exotic)

Promote the erstwhile American Dream in the face of its declining applicability

 

The Affordable Care Act was funded with a 20% capital gains tax plus a 3.8% levy on investment income. The top income tax rate of 37% remains far below levels of the past.

 

What would the upper 5% prefer: higher taxes on every form of income, closed loopholes (carried interest, appreciation without taxation on one’s demise), or a UBI?

 

Maybe the right politically could come to view UBI as philosophically aligned with individualism and an alternative to big government getting into their pocketbooks in a direct and painful way.

 

Perhaps an equally intriguing question is whether the left politically would prefer a series of new government programs (always its favorite “fix”) or a UBI?

 

This is a compilation of my monthly Birthday Cards in 2023. Various boxed designs have been deleted and all verbiage has been made flush left for consistency.

Each was originally signed, “Peace, Bob.”

JANUARY:

In an uncertain world where personal control is elusive, staying with well-intentioned

New Year’s Eve resolutions is a challenge.

I do an exercise at year-end called “burning your burdens.” I write down a personal shortcoming

to be eliminated. Then I go outside and burn this paper … and have a glass of champagne.

Spoiler alert: sometimes that burned shortcoming has a way of re-appearing the next year. Whoops!

Societally, there is a long list of shortcomings it would be nice to burn, but I won’t enumerate them here.

Regardless of those who focus on the dust on the piano legs rather than the music,

the USA is still the country people move to, not from.

I know you have accomplished much — stay true to your positive values.

You are an inspiration in my life.

FEBRUARY:

Ah, February: love is in the air –

before, during, and after the BIG DAY itself!

Not only is love a wonderful positive all by itself, but focusing on your relationship with loved ones represents a way to stay sane in today’s troubled world.

Negatives abound: on-going discrimination; an inability to construct a logical, humane immigration policy; dishonesty and/or outright corruption at home and abroad; never-ending mass shootings; an unwillingness to consider the other person’s viewpoint. It’s a depressing list, benefiting only drug companies.

So focus on meaningful love and do not be hesitant to tell the other person involved.

There is magic in the initials ILY!

MARCH:

What happens in March that is worth noting?

(1) We add an hour to the clock, for reasons which escape me; (2) Spring begins and complaints about Winter cease; (3) International Women’s Day is celebrated, and (4) skip to the bottom.

Apropos of nothing in particular, did you know that for the white population, 58 is the most common age; for African Americans and Asians, it is 27; and for Hispanics, it is 11!

Of newborns, the United States is already a nation of multiple minorities.

It is time for everyone, of all political persuasions, to fully recognize the evolving blended look

of this unique country.

The answer to #4: March is famous for it being the month of your birth.

APRIL:

Maria Ressa won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2021 for her lifelong fight on behalf of responsible journalism, more specifically, her battles against the dishonesty of the government of the Philippines, her native country and the world’s second-most on-line country.

In her book, “How to Stand up to a Dictator,” she has much to say about the deliberate decision by social media companies to employ their technological wizardry not on the side of defending and communicating facts, but on the side of playing to people’s emotions.

Facebook has the world’s best business model: people give it free information of all kinds. It puts this information through its algorithm grinders and sells it repackaged to eager companies. It knows hate and fabricated posts stimulate traffic to Facebook. Dictators and corrupt individuals take advantage of this, each functioning in their own sphere of power and coercion.

Admittedly, it is not a discovery that negative sells better; conventional network news outlets have known this from the beginning. What is unprecedented is the absence of any serious vetting process for that news item, the speed with which complete lies can gain traction around the world, and the absence of any dynamic tension between journalistic ethics and the business of making money.

Today’s younger generation only knows this Facebook world; historical and contemporary awareness of complexity have been ground into little factoids for ease of consumption while they are smothered by layers of money-making algorithms.

Take time in this month of April Fool’s Day to assess what is real in your life, what is valued, what you love, what makes for a HAPPY BIRTHDAY!!!

MAY:

Many, many years ago, I compiled a long list of sayings, some borrowed (without attribution) and some created. The sayings were posted not on Instagram (yet to be invented) but on our refrigerator. At our daughters’ high school graduations, the insights were typed up and presented as gifts, not because I am unduly cheap and not because I had delusions of being an influencer, but simply because I thought it was a cool thing to do.

The modest list below follows in that tradition: sayings in no order of importance.

*Ask, analyze, assert, accept.

* Any real change implies the break-up of the world as one has always known it, the loss of all that gave one an identity, the end of safety.

*Be quick, but don’t hurry.

*Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

*Dream … plan … build … manage … improve.

*Encourage, enlighten, empower.

*Footprints do not begin in the middle of the snow.

*How can you love somebody yet want to manage the amount of happiness that a person is allowed.

*In a competition, you either win or learn.

*It will be impossible (for the world) to build an ecological future while still maintaining our system of unrestrained material consumption.

*Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.

*Kisses are a better fate than wisdom.

*More laughter equals fewer heart attacks.

*Own your actions.

*Our grandparents had careers. Our parents had jobs. We complete tasks.

*Recognize a problem, engage in a problem-solving process, stay focused until the problem is resolved.

*Sometimes the wrong train takes you to the right destination.

*Try to not use either “like” (if you are under 30 years of age) or “but” (if you are older) in your conversation; it’s a challenge!

*We can’t exchange these people for other people. We have what we have.

*You did not know that people could dictate life. You were used to accepting what life gave you.

*You know, I never think of Americans as having brothers and sisters. They always seem so alone in the world, so individual, so … self-absorbed.

MAY/UVALDE:

The 24^th marks one year from the day when 19 kids and 2 adults at an elementary school in the small town of Uvalde, Texas had their lives – and those who loved them — destroyed by a gunman. I have been to Uvalde, an hour’s drive from the Mexican border, talking with and supporting mental health professionals attempting to provide solace to shattered families.

Today, in your state, more than two people will die by guns. Tomorrow, another two-plus. The following twenty-four hours, the same. In fact, to be exact and using national averages, in 2022, 2.6 people died by guns every day in every state.

In the specific category of mass shootings of schoolchildren, this country has no peers in the world. It is willing to see kids die rather than face up to the need for gun reform. With all due respect to the Constitution, it is not possible for words put on paper at a certain time in history to anticipate change in an evolving world. In the words of author Geoff Canada, violence has escalated: fist, stick, knife, gun. Only the latter has a high rate of finality to the person on the other end.

Changes under the heading of gun reform are (1) minimum age for a license,

(2) restrictions on the type of gun which can be purchased without a background check, (3) legal limits on where a concealed gun can be carried, and (4) increased urgency among mental health professionals to invoke red flag warnings that indicate a possible shooter.

Arming teachers and instructing kids with active shooter drills will do nothing to alleviate the mental health situation of our young people, nor of their parents and guardians, jumping when a call from the school comes during class hours.

For a thoughtful, pragmatic approach to gun reform, I highly recommend reading “A Smarter Way to Reduce Gun Deaths,” by Nicholas Kristof. It appeared on page four of the Sunday Opinion section of the New York Times, January 29, 2023.

JUNE:

Welcome to Summer: trips to the beach for swimming (a little), volleyball (if there is space), sun (lots), reading (maybe — nothing strenuous), food (especially of the junk variety), and legal beverages (within limits of course).

The month of June, in which we should all take Pride, includes Flag Day, probably little noticed by anybody under a certain age; Father’s Day, always less commercialized than Mother’s Day; and Juneteenth, an important commemoration unfortunately not readily identifiable by many people.

Alas, the fun and holidays of June do not contradict the economic necessity of having a job. Bills must be paid and credit card debt is expensive. Hopefully you like your current employment situation. If not, it seems that “we’re hiring” signs are omnipresent.

Whatever you are planning for the month, take time today to have a HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

JULY:

If you grew up in a warm weather climate, July must feel like you have done something right and gone to heaven.

For others, it’s too hot. There is a temptation to move north before all the ice caps have melted.

A full moon takes place on the third of the month. For unknown reasons, when everybody seems to be acting a little crazy, it is common for an observer to suggest that “it must be a full moon tonight.”

The Holiday Heart of the month is July 4, which is still America’s Independence Day unless it has fallen victim to cancel culture.

Whatever you celebrate this month, make sure it includes a HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

AUGUST:

August is named after a Roman noble who has not yet been culturally cancelled.

It is often an insufferably hot month, but then July was not exactly cool.

Contrary to conventional belief, the month has numerous holidays. There is

National Ice Cream Sandwich Day on the second, Book Lovers Day on the ninth, and National Fajita Day on the 18^th.

Only a cynic would believe that customer-seeking businesses are behind the creation and promotion of these holidays.

My favorite, because there is no mercenary motivation, has to be National Just Because Day on the 27^th.

SEPTEMBER:

Students are back to school, which makes some happy.

Celebrating Labor Day, a huge event when manufacturing unions were strong, now is without much participation.

Business activity picks up usually; people return from vacations and spend money in a normal fashion.

There will be at least one Presidential debate (don’t ask!)

Mental health is under pressure. It is more important than ever to have fun

whenever possible – like today, your BIRTHDAY!

OCTOBER:

October is an unusual mixture.

Half of it completes Hispanic Heritage month.

The clocks get changed, time falling an hour.

The weather is a healthy combination

of cool air and warm sun.

Alas, now students must make those

loan repayments which were not required

during the COVID hiatus. Sorry for the reminder.

Will the list of prominent indictees lengthen?

We already have Trump, Menendez, and Biden’s son.

Makes you want to go apple-picking

instead of checking the news.

Meanwhile, regardless of the calendar

or the climate or any semblance of a coordinated

immigration program, people are pouring into the country.

Apropos, I found this quote to be on point:

”To have a parent from another country

is to know how little you can take for granted,

to understand how deeply we have been shaped

by families and cultures,

and to see how easily we could be another person.”

Today is your special day, be yourself.

Have a HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

NOVEMBER: A Time to give Thanks

For the cry of a newborn

Not for babies slain in wars

For the beautiful sunrise

Not for the possible sunset of our planet

For aspirations

Not for the cost of higher education

For basketball

Not for age and injuries

For the ability to vote

Not for the quality of our candidates

For welcoming immigrants

Not for the absence of a comprehensive program

For literature of all types

Not for book banning

For open discourse

Not for ignoring facts

For judicial impartiality

Not for reliance on 200 year-old precedents

For art

Not for high prices at museums

For suburban parks

Not for urban parks being scarce

For beauty

Not for crudeness

For peace

Not for how hard it is to find

DECEMBER

What can I say about December that has not been written elsewhere, in greater quantity and quality.

Maybe I should simply

take a walk down memory lane:

On Christmas Day, my father standing at the base of the staircase and announcing that Santa had not come this year. He was kidding, thank goodness.

In my Wall Street days, writing an extensive report on American Greetings that was labeled the best ever on that particular industry.

Family creating our own Holiday card

and stamping it Howmark instead of Hallmark.

Whatever your special memories are,

you have the opportunity to create new ones.

Pray for peace — for all,

not only for those with whom you agree.

 

 

Traditional: gambling, alcohol, smoking – all aggressively promoted.   With warnings language attached.

Work zones are semi-chaotic. The expenditure sign for government funds is to the penny.

Academic scores at a record low. The ability to click to get information is at an all-time high.

Smoke Shops are popping up everywhere. Urgent Care buildings are on the next corner.

St. Barnabas Orthopedics, a first class hospital. It is a major sponsor of Rutgers football.

Six year-olds with football helmets learning how to hit people hard. More CTE studies being released.

There are more ways to communicate than ever. We have fewer friends.

Real estate advertisements are everywhere. Some tout their ethics.

Is it philosophy which brings people together. No, it is some combination of babies, dogs, and football.

A child sniffles in frame one of the ad. The last frame is that of the insurance company.

People are overloaded with imagery. There are ads in the corner of every televised sporting event.

Almost every tennis player has his country identified. Russians get a blank.

The Pope preaches peace. He cannot recognize a war in front of his eyes.

High fat and sugary food and drink advertisements. In the same show, Ozempic is pitched.

Marijuana is promoted. Vaping is illegal.

Blue cities are business partners of Red, crop-growing areas. Each side vilifies the other’s cultural norms.

Escalating credit card usage and fees. When cash is used in large amounts, suspicion is immediate.

Who can sing which rap song lyrics out loud? Apparently it depends on your ethnicity.

Our headlong emphasis on economic growth. Negative ecological externalities are ignored.

Multi-capability devices that can do everything but slice bread. The directions are anything but simple.

New college graduates have a middle-class mentality. Their initial income is in stark contrast.

Which is to be the role of humanity? Did God give them “dominion over” or “stewardship of?”

Long discussion with a cardiologist. Not a question about diet, where one lived, or how one lived.

CBS News. Exactly the same “news” story on consecutive days, i.e., no lead-in, no interpretation.

A Google phone picture, among others: reality altered with a swipe.

An ad for Insinkerator: food thrown away that would be a meal for a billion people or so.

Urgency to get a Call Alert button: two-week delivery.

Smith & Wesson ad labeling its gun an “Equalizer.” Actually it can blow away dozens at a time.

 

(My comments at Andrea’s swearing-in ceremony)

It’s hard to believe, but I have known Andrea Mazzula for over 30 years.

Since this is a courtroom, I am obligated to provide evidence to support my statement.

I will now pass the evidence around for your examination:

A photo from 1994 that indicates Andrea is skilled at eating. Exhibit A

A photo from 2000 indicating that she did actually go to college and graduate. Exhibit A

Written documentation that Andrea once wrote for a publication called MIDtropolis news. Exhibit B

More documentation that she was organized, a characteristic not common to young people. Exhibit C

Written documentation that at an early age, Andrea wanted to be a lawyer. A great example of foresight and dedication to a long challenging road. Exhibit D

More photos as Andrea took her case to a higher court – I means school – and graduated. Exhibit E

Much later, testimony from Andrea on how she felt about high school and college education. Exhibit F

As you can tell, one of the joys of my life has been to see Andrea move ahead – with education, with her career, with her family.

Along the way, she helped me do a real estate transaction. The result was an Ecuadorian family now slept in their own house instead of on couches at a friend’s place.

Her intelligence, professionalism, attention to detail, her forthrightness – all were on display.

Andrea helped me do a second real estate transaction, this time with a Colombian family. They are now in their first house in this country.

To say that thirty years had no bumps would be misleading. Growth often is stimulated by adversity.

I have documentation that 30 years ago, she had a goal of staying out of trouble. Exhibit G

She also said OJ was innocent. It’s right there in Exhibit H.

She also got mad at me once. I had been falsely accused of drunk driving and handcuffed. I was so traumatized that I neglected to call and wake her up in the middle of the night.

Later, Andrea recommended the book about trauma called “The Body keeps the Score.”

I read it and then gave away a half-dozen copies to professionals who interact with those who have experienced trauma. Depending on your definition, that pretty much includes most of us.

When I was in grade school, there was a quiet kid named Richard Naven who had earned some prize. The teacher asked him to say a few words. He stood up, said “a few words” and sat down.

I have topped him so it’s time to sit down. This is a wonderful occasion and Andrea is a wonderful woman it has been my pleasure to have known. Yes, for over 30 years.

I love you Andrea.

 

 

*In visiting multiple people who formerly lived in New Jersey, I cannot begin to say how proud I am to see WKBJ alumni with families, houses, children, education, careers, functioning in diverse surroundings.

*My laptop was never touched; instead I read “The Attic Child.” Physical newspapers (my addiction continues) awaited my return to New Jersey and the sight of leaves which had fallen in my absence.

*Israel, at war, has declared that “every city resident will be able to get an armament license.”  What is needed are the following: medical approval, police approval, and passing an exam for carrying private firearms. In the USA, supposedly at peace unless you check the mass shooting data, you can walk into a gun store and for $800 or so come out with an AR-15 killing device.

*One point of contention in Uvalde is whether to maintain, seemingly in perpetuity, the plaza memorial to the 18 students and three teachers slain on May 24, 2022 or erect a memorial at the new school being built to replace Robb Elementary, where the massacre took place. Many therapists believe there needs to be a shift toward a focus on the mental health of those in affected families, friends, and the community at large, recognizing that there is no closure.

*Is the slope of TechnoWorld’s penetration into our lives terribly dissimilar from increases in single-parent families or teenage suicides?

*It appears there are at least four issues where one can win a debate and change nobody’s mind:guns, immigration, charter schools, and abortion.

*An interesting, and chilling, book is “End of the Myth,” about the country’s continuous redefinition of what a border has meant, and the dominant negative pathology behind the process.

*An Amazon truck is inscribed: “that thing you want, it’s in here.” Tangible stuff defines us. Yup.

*As we add highway lanes, humungous warehouses, and individual storage centers, do we make offsetting financial contributions to all the “we must save the planet” organizations?

*Is it the USA or the world overall that is like a Slinky or an Achilles tendon? You can stretch them carefully and they will return to their normal states, no problem. However, if you stretch a Slinky too far, you have a mangled mess. When you stretch an Achilles too far, the resultant rupture is painful.

 

 

 

(Premise: nobody is up for dialogue, so the affluent simply leave a tip on the table for all the social service/education providers and their clients, and then call it a day.)

Years back, when I got hooked on demographics, I began assuring anxious Hispanic students with whom I was interacting that the diversity trend was in their favor. Overall, the United States would be a country of multiple minorities sometime before 2050. (P.S. At birth, it already is.)

I then added with a wry smile, “the only question is whether power transfers peacefully.”

We both agreed that was a huge, and incredibly challenging, question.

Note that when I make reference to demographic change that statistically shows minority population growth and white stagnation or decline, this is a numerical observation, not to be construed as somehow philosophically connected to those who regard this as “white displacement.” In fact, the United States has the opportunity through education and entrepreneurial flexibility to be not only the first nation of multiple minorities, but one which could facilitate their upward mobility –if it can get its act together and if racial antagonism does not prove to be an irreversible cancer.

Today, the demographic diversity pyramid in colleges, businesses, and a lengthy list of organizations has the greatest percentage dispersion of ethnicities at the lowest level. This percentage declines at the middle level and dwindles to a small number at the executive level. Change in the composition of this pyramid is practically inevitable given fertility rates and the composition of women of child-bearing age.

This expectation has nothing to do with the current surge in immigration, nor with any future fluctuations in its numbers. It is a here-and-now extrapolation.

Maybe the Big Agreement to be described below is not directly related to these comments on demographics, but indirectly it is: income and ethnic strata overlap. I confess up front that I have taken a bit of creative license, conflating and combining stereotypes and data skews and documentable assertions. (Isn’t writing fun when you control the Send button!)

Time-out for a trigger warning which maybe explains everything. At the 1787 Constitutional Convention, Gouverneur Morris, who represented Pennsylvania, rendered this opinion, “The Rich will strive to establish their dominion and enslave the rest. They always did and they always will.”

More calmly put, at times it can seem like there is a Big Agreement between affluent America (AA; no distinctions made for luck, inheritance, or intelligence) and non-affluent America (NA, includes the welfare system, those serving it, and tax-avoidance foundations; no connotation or connection intended to bad luck, poverty at birth, or intelligence).

AA has the luxury of choosing: personal, direct involvement in the hard work of developing policies that structurally would address the widening fissures within our country – or – the equivalent of leaving a tip, money for NA to do with what they wish – which on the record is to fund an elaborate potpourri of social service programs which typically defy evidence-based analysis using mutually agreed upon tools.

If AA desires a policy dialogue and raises for discussion issues like family formation, work ethic, deferred consumption, or education reform, the AA messenger is immediately attacked.  NA shouts out, “what about reforming – the police, drug policy, prisons!” And then comes the conversation ender: “AA is white, male, racist. Therefore AA has no standing in our fight for social justice.”

The voice of AA becomes difficult to hear; it is only the sound of money (now soundless in the age of TechnoWorld) which resonates in the Big Agreement, the gratuity left to NA.

Contrary to what is often alleged, AA is aware of history, when white males with hypocritical (at best) views “confused” this country by combining a cogent governance structure with two incredible blemishes: acceptance of both slavery and second-class status for women.

All these years later, anything that AA suggests about certain components of moving from NA to AA is rendered useless by those two stupendous errors. Relatives of those mistakes have continued to plague the country to this day, even as significant change has occurred. Neither racial minorities nor women are remotely proportionally represented in AA.

While AA is not credible – in the popular view – they do have, uh, that asset called money. In its frustration – or maybe glee in being able to opt out of what you might call regular life — AA signs off on a Big Agreement. When it checks out, It is willing to click on the 20% box instead of 15% but it will not whip out its platinum card and convey a serious chunk of its net worth to a collective NA which overall has little interest in discussing a different way of living. The 20% tip itself has no negative impact on the lifestyle of AA. Ironically, sadly, the tip seemingly does little to move the needle for NA.

The AA-NA relationship holds regardless of unfolding demographic change or the continuing evolution of  TechnoWorld or the comings and goings in other countries. In fact, none of the trends elsewhere – Europe with problems; Russia and China gaining in influence, despite the former’s invasion of Ukraine and the faltering Chinese economy; Japan aging out; and India trying to balance economic growth with religious divisiveness — send a message to AA or NA, a communication that might read – ‘you need to take care of your internal issues if you are to have any chance of peacefully maintaining a leading voice in world politics.’ The USA being a beacon for those seeking jobs is insufficient; if anything, the AA-NA equation is exacerbated.

Okay, there is inherent cynicism in describing anything like a Big Agreement. Maybe it’s the refuge of a scoundrel writer. But with President Biden’s son, Presidential candidate Trump, and New Jersey Senator Menendez all under indictment, how could anybody be cynical!

Amusing? Addendum

Imagine if Trump had a speechwriting assistant who wrote the following: “everybody knows China’s credibility with numbers and contracts is sub-optimal; most realize that NATO countries are not putting in their fair share of funding; immigration is in need of an overhaul, inclusive of a border strategy; despite its intentions, the UN has done little to prevent aggression throughout the world.”

In each case, Trump’s personal choice of verbiage on the issue buried fundamentally accurate observations with so much stylistic negativity that no serious two-party discussion was feasible. On racial matters and those of diversity, both his substance and his style were so off-putting that even a skilled speechwriter could not make it acceptable to more than a percentage of people, alas, a percentage that was greater than most would wish.

Meanwhile, a bit of analysis by Trump supporters would disclose that they are no more immune to the AA-NA imagery than anybody else. Fundamentally his disciples do not know where they are, or why, to which one unarticulated response is an increased suicide rate among older white men.

(This blog was written before Hamas attacked Israel and the latter responded.)

Everyone will agree that people should be treated equally, regardless of their circumstances. Hence each of these color-blind policy dictates and requirements is to be applied across the board, no exceptions.

 

*In order to help save the planet, all people shall either own an electric vehicle or use public transportation. Approximately 80% of Green and 20% of Gold are able to buy a vehicle.

 

*In the belief that owning a house is correlated with a more stable society and that reducing the debt load is conducive to maintaining that ownership, all buyers must put down 10% cash when they purchase a house. About 70% of Green and 10% of Gold are able to buy a house.

 

*Clothing stores at the nation’s malls have instituted a policy of random searches in order to combat shoplifting. Some 50% of those searched are Green and 50% are Gold.

 

*All school systems within a given state shall receive the same per-pupil funding allotment. Allowable non-school spending for educational add-ons: private lessons, trips, summer camps, etc. shall be capped at 25% of the school allotment. 50% of Green and 10% of Gold are able to use some or all of this benefit.

 

*In order to most economically deploy local police department personnel in combatting street drug traffic, they will focus entirely on urban areas; 15% of Green and 75% of Gold will be affected.

 

*Mental health is an issue of growing concern, with well-known personalities going public with their situations. Studies have indicated that interaction with a psychologist of their own ethnicity is favorable for a patient. Green connects on 95% and Gold on 5%.

 

*The state police have cracked down on speeders on interstate highways: the issuance of tickets has been 50% Green and 50% Gold.

 

*Creating the most cost-effective route for the urban portion of an interstate highway requires the relocation of some people. Around 15% of Green and 50% of Gold are affected by the route.

 

At what point is it reasonable for Gold to think the deck is stacked against them, perhaps even reflecting a bit of antagonism by Green toward Gold? Can a technically impartial policy or requirement be in fact a convenient, legally enforceable way for Green to keep Gold subservient?

 

P.S. Why are the 50%-50% outcomes above unfair?

 

 

 

 

 

Most people I know are either good communicators or at least have an understandable pattern in their response to an inquiry. Occasionally, an exemplary individual lapses into a mode of non-communication.

In trying to figure out the reason for this non-communication, below I have listed a baker’s dozen of possibilities in alphabetical order:

Embarrassment

Family problem

Friend situation

Health issue

 

Homework comes first

In jail

Making a Complete Change in one’s life and deferring communication until all the details are in place

 

No Internet available

Out of the Country

Phone and laptop both out of service

 

Saving Good News for another time

Self-description as being a disappointment to others

Taking a break to work and save money for the next phase of life

 

Question: which of these reasons make it impossible for person X to respond to an inquiry from person Y with a two sentence informative communication?

 

On Wall Street, I was a partner in a relatively small, but highly regarded, money management and institutional research firm. In December of 2022, the founder and managing partner passed away at the age of 96. My last lunch with him was shortly before the onset of the pandemic. We ate in his office; he was mentally sharp while struggling a bit physically. We had kept in touch over the thirty years since I left the firm to initiate my education foundation endeavors.

Back in the day, as we would pore over all the facets of a company and its top executives, it became evident that there was a personality and process profile worth noting. I put together the following succinct list. It should be apparent as to our preference.

Long studies                       Short memos

Fluff                                       Facts

Egotistical                            Self-deprecating

Spender                               Innovative capital expenditures

Average Health                  Physically fit

 

Spread out                          Concentrated

Gourmet                              Simple eater

Speechmaker                     Questioner

Long Answers                    Short

Imprecise                             Articulate

 

Conceptual                         Concrete

Earnings                               Cash Flow

Methodical                         Energetic

Serious                                 Engaging

Staff                                       Individual

 

Overhead Money             Product and marketing money

Calculus                                Simple math

Growth                                 Wealth creation

Manager                              Owner

Philosophical                      Numerical

 

Fuzzy Pay                             Big incentives

Small Talkers                       Business talk

Political                                 Direct

Flashy                                    Conservative

Reward                                 Risk

 

Even with the advent of social media and the centrality of TechnoWorld, the list above seems useful. As Warren (you know his last name) says, investing is not like baseball where three strikes and you are out. With investing, you can wait, sometimes for a lengthy period, until you find the people and company with whom you want to be associated as a long-term shareholder.

 

 

For more than a quarter-century, I have assisted young people on their higher education journey. Around 85% have been Hispanic. It quite naturally follows that the subject of immigration is not foreign to me, quite the contrary. At times (many years back), I have written essays on the subject, often underlining the demographic changes which make increased immigration critical to economic growth in the United States.

More recently, I have kept a running compilation of immigration-related facts and thoughts, gleaned primarily from my daily in-print newspaper fix: the “New York Times” and the “Wall Street Journal.”

It was helpful to me to then create a somewhat logical, heavily edited grouping of this type of information. Note that in the material below, it would be stunning if there were not some confusing inputs, even outright contradictions – they go with any discussion of immigration.

Before moving ahead, these are a few baseline background thoughts relevant to immigration.

Did past USA policies in certain countries south of our border screw up governments, distort economies, and cause the death of innocent people? Yes. In recent years, are there similar policies which have produced similar results? None of which I am aware. Are these countries unable to foster stable governance and job-creating economies not saddled with the fear of criminal activity? Good question. Are we to assume that the resident population of these countries is permanently incapable of positive change? If so, no point continuing with this piece of writing. If not, then the assumption is that aiding these countries directly is not a forever proposition, even if it is a multiyear commitment.

In the meantime, as the saying goes, people will beg, borrow, or steal in order to get to the USA and its implicit promise of jobs, relative safety, and the freedom to call the President bad names without fearing reprisal.

Fully realizing that all immigration issues overlap with the approximate structure of spaghetti, nonetheless below I have grouped my immigration notes under these headings:

The Border: General, Asylum

Domestic: Data and Demographics

Politics/Economics: Politics, Economics, Legal

International: Canada, Other Countries

 

The Border: General

 

*At least for the moment, the number of border crossers has dropped significantly, reflecting tougher policies instituted by both Mexico (for example, people who are apprehended being transported far from the border) and the USA (five-year ban on repeated illegal crossers) plus improvements to the latter’s appointment scheduling app: CPB One (Customs and Border Protection, which is within Homeland Security; Border Patrol is part of CPB, which was created after 9/11 with an anti-terrorist mission.) Communication by lawyers to clients is said to be chaotic, despite the improvements.

 

*Near Eagle Pass, the state of Texas is creating a long floating barrier of orange buoys to discourage border crossing swimmers; it is now the subject of a lawsuit. Other Texas measures under Operation Lone Star, including the use of razor wire, have come under substantial attack; use of Texas state troopers and National Guardsmen has fueled irritation, as have reports of undue aggressiveness, including the killing of a tribal member in Arizona. Texas’ response is basically that it is attempting to bring order to a federal issue, international borders and immigration enforcement, when there is no evidence the federal government is committed to doing so. Minorities directly affected by the border situation have themselves supported Texas’ actions; some elsewhere have questioned whether the benefits are worth the cost of approximately $2.5 billion per year.

 

*Border crossing has become a business, no longer featuring random coyotes; Mexican drug cartels are heavily involved in certain areas. The cost of a coyote exceeds $10,000. A record number are dying at the border, especially in places with treacherous water.

 

*The Supreme Court has supported the Biden policy of prioritizing deportations: those deemed threats and those who crossed illegally get full attention. Those who have been in the USA for many years and done nothing wrong get a pass. The backlog of all cases is about two million. To address this with clarity and justice requires significant additional staff and money.

 

*In the year ended September 30, 2022, there were 2.3 million border encounters compared with 405,000 in pandemic 2020. About 70% of border crossers are single males. A reported 75% of unaccompanied minors are from Venezuela, Ecuador, and Haiti. Overall, 250,000 migrant children have come alone to the USA in the past two years, here to work and send money back.

 

*Entrepreneurs at the border are selling infrared rifle scopes, spyware, materials for fence sensors. Border states and individuals are becoming enforcers of their own interpretation of immigration laws. Non-profit organizations are at the border for more humane purposes. QAnon representatives are functioning at the border as well, purportedly to help kids in need.

 

*The average wait in an ICE detention center is 37 days. Detention capacity is 20,000. Pending cases are up sevenfold in the past decade (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University). There is a 150-day waiting period before eligibility to work. Both immigrant advocates and prospective employers (at present anyway) would like eligibility to happen quicker, even if it was only for a stipulated period of time, e.g. two years.

 

*The movie ”Sound of Freedom” has grossed over $150 million at the box office; filmed in 2018, it is based on the true story of an American Homeland Security Agent who investigated pedophiles. Its producer and director are Mexican, as were most of the movie’s investors.

 

The Border: Asylum

 

*The CBP One app is designed to facilitate would-be crossers signing up to get themselves in the immigration data system. There are 1,000+ appointments available daily; 40,000 monthly. The person has 23 hours to register and confirmation of the booking is within 23 hours.

 

*More than 170,000 people received appointments in the first half of 2023, 38,000 in June alone.

 

*A federal appeals court judge has given the Biden asylum process at least a temporary green light, shortly after a federal judge had nixed it.

*Asylum judges (who are located in the Justice Department) look at the asylum application and read State Department reports on their home country. Fleeing solely for economic reasons does not make a person eligible for asylum. Some 80% of new arrivals have received decisions within a year; only one-third had lawyers. Migrants have a right to a lawyer, but the government is not obligated to pay them.  There are 70 immigration courts, with an average of 10 judges each. The average time to close a case has been four years. When families cross illegally – unsure whether this is rendered irrelevant with the newer procedures — the head of household is obliged to wear an ankle monitor; the goal is a 30-day decision on whether they can stay or are to be deported.

 

*Regional processing centers have been opened in Colombia and Guatemala. Their objective is to do an initial screening of prospective asylum seekers, including referrals to relevant federal programs. The overall goal of recent changes is to cut the asylum process time to six months. Said cases are 40% of the two million immigration case backlog.

 

*Private citizens can offer logistical and financial responsibility for refugees; a “Welcome Group” must have at least five people and raise at least $2,275 per refugee. Reportedly, more than one million have signed up to be sponsors of migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.

 

Domestic: Data and Demographics

 

*In 2022, there were 7.3 million visas issued for all categories of people, meaning the breadth and depth of administrative challenges is quite large.

 

*Some 900,000 immigrants became citizens in 2022, the third highest ever and the most in 15 years. About 20% of American households communicate in a second language; in order, these are the leading languages: Spanish, Chinese, Tagalog, Vietnamese, Arabic. It is projected that by 2060, there will be 110 million Spanish speakers in the USA, a number twice the entire population of Colombia.

 

*Around 10% of black individuals in the USA were born elsewhere; including children, they represent 21% of the total black population. On average, they are more educated, with higher incomes and fewer living in poverty. Racial issues are basically the same as those impacting native born blacks.

 

*One-fifth of immigrants come with less than a high school education. Half of immigrants can speak English. Asians represent 37% of recent immigrants; Hispanics, 28%. In 2001, those numbers were 22% and 53% respectively.

 

*Contrary to what might be thought, in recent years, the undocumented count in the USA has stayed flat at approximately 10 million, compared with a peak of 12 million in 2008. New Jersey is one of the six states which represent 59% of undocumented individuals; it has an estimated 475,000 undocumented individuals. Two-thirds of undocumented adults have been in the state for more than a decade. They can now obtain professional credentials, e.g. teacher or nurse.

 

*New York City is home to a half-million undocumented individuals, plus more than 50,000 new migrants (and 50,000 homeless as well). It has about 200 shelters. Immigrants are half the workforce and own half of the businesses in the city. New York has also lost 500,000 legal residents since 2020. Under a consent decree signed by the city, it is obliged to offer housing to all who request it. Reportedly, a NYC resident would have to be making $280,000 pre-tax to afford what a migrant family is receiving.

 

*During the Biden administration, one million migrants have been admitted, including 300,000 who are wearing tracking devices. Some 1.7 million have been turned away. One-quarter of nonelderly legal immigrants have no health insurance, compared with 8% of all Americans.

 

*The USA has a shortage of academic talent; it has one high scoring young person compared with two who score low. Germany has equal numbers in the two categories; Scandinavia has three times as many in the high scoring category and Japan, five times as many. About 70% of American college graduates in Electrical Engineering and Computer/Information Services are foreign nationals.

 

*Without immigration, the working-age population (25-64) will decline in this country.

 

Politics/Economics: Politics

 

*In 1986, President Reagan gave amnesty to 2.7 million undocumented individuals. The memory of this action is implanted in the minds of those who believe people crossing the border on betting on some type of amnesty program, whatever the specific terminology.

 

*President Obama deported 3.0 million people, of whom 1.7 million had no criminal record; Trump’s numbers, counterintuitively, were actually less.

 

*It’s an old number but interesting; in 2016, about 700,000 foreigners who came to the USA and came by air or sea, i.e. were logged into the system, did not leave when they were supposed to.

 

*Perhaps surprisingly, 60% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats support increasing skilled immigration.

Since 2007, family based admissions have been about 800,000 per year; employment-based admissions have been around 150,000.

 

*Work visa renewals now can be done within the USA. ICE has extended work permit expiration dates; there is a backlog here of 1.5 million. It can take a year to get an initial work permit. In 2021, a House bill was passed that would have provided a path to citizenship for one million farmworkers here illegally. The annual 85,000 H-1B visa slots are typically oversubscribed by almost 10:1.

 

*Biden extended Temporary Protected Status through work-related 18-month visas for immigrants from El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Nepal. Expiration dates vary; the underlying timelines go back to natural disasters: a 1998 earthquake for the former, a 1998 hurricane for the middle two, and a 2015 earthquake for the latter. The majority of the 400,000 people here under TPS have been in the USA for twenty years.

 

*Place-based visas are part of the immigration system in Australia and Canada. Maybe the USA should consider them: in the latest census, 80% of its counties (a total of 149 million people) lost residents in the 25-47 age group.

 

*Innumerable non-profit organizations are providing pro bono legal help and other assistance to migrants who have been transported to cities far away from the border. It is a thankless task driven by humane considerations; there is neither cohesion of service delivery nor any clarity of future planning.

 

*There are about 700,000 DACA recipients. An estimated 200,000 are teachers and frontliners. The DACA program began in 2012, under an executive order. The Supreme Court decision against DACA was on technical grounds; renewals are happening.

 

*There has been bipartisan support (and close votes in Congress) for a path to legalization for DACA recipients (example: Under the Dream and Promise Act, dreamers could remain for at least 10 years and become permanent residents if they did two years in college or the military or held a steady job), yet nothing happens as the issue is used as an overall immigration bargaining chip by both sides of the aisle. Note that work authorization for the parents of DACA recipients would be an important plus.

 

Political/Economic: Economics

 

*The USA reportedly has 9.6 million job openings, a number far greater than those seeking work; acceleration of temporary work visas would make sense. An estimated 75% of undocumented individuals in the USA are employed, the total number equating to 5% of all those working. (Immigrants represent 25% of the 4.3 million direct care workers in the USA.)

 

*Florida law SB 1718 invalidates out-of-state driver’s licenses given to illegal immigrants, requires hospitals to quantify uncompensated healthcare, and mandates employers with at least 25 employees to use E-Verify to confirm the legal status of hires. There are an estimated 770,000 undocumented immigrants in his state, many of whom work for entrepreneurial businesses: construction, hospitality, agriculture. Reportedly half of its crop farm workers lack status. The question is whether Florida’s on-going economic growth pattern will be stalled. There is initial evidence that this is the case; when an undocumented individual has the capability to choose where to work or live, Florida loses.

 

*While H-1B visas for skilled workers and H-2B visas for unskilled workers are capped, there is no cap on H-2A guest workers. The employer must attest he cannot find local workers for the job. In 2022, there were 300,000 H-2A visas issued, quadruple the rate a decade earlier.

 

*Cross border trade between the USA and Mexico is $1.8 billion per day; 1000 trucks/day cross at Brownsville, Texas; 200,000 cars and trucks daily cross the whole border.

 

*There is a $1 billion pledge by private companies (Nestle, Target et al) to support communities in Central America by assisting farmers, creating textile jobs, and investing in telecom.

 

*The EB-5 green card investment requirement for projects in designated job creation areas has been lifted to $900,000 from $500,000. Elsewhere, the requirement is $1.8 million, up from $1 million.

 

*According to FWD.us, TPS holders contribute $22 billion annually to the US economy.

 

Political/Economic: Legal

 

*California is arguing that the hiring of undocumented individuals, while federally prohibited, is not illegal at the state level.

 

*Noncitizens who entered unlawfully cannot obtain permanent residency even if they have stayed under Temporary Protected Status.

 

*Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) taps a CLEAR data base from utility companies, compiled by Thomson Reuters and Equifax. This is probably not legal in the view of many immigrant advocates.

 

*ICE cannot make arrests in schools, hospitals, churches, daycare centers, or foster care facilities.

 

*A growing number of states have extended driving license privileges to undocumented individuals.

 

*Foreign students who overstay their visas by more than 180 days are barred from re-entry for three years. If unlawfully present for over a year, they are barred for ten years.

 

International: Canada

 

*Canada had been admitting 250,000 immigrants annually on a population base of 32 million, twice the proportion of the USA, Sweden, or Germany. Over half have college degrees. Only 6% of its foreign-born population is undocumented, compared with 30% in USA.

 

*Now, Canada is stepping up its immigration/permanent resident goals, to 1.45 million over a three-year period. In 2022, it took in 437,000 immigrants. Like the USA, Canada has an aging native born population and a large number of vacant jobs.

 

*Canada is openly going after American H-1B visa holders as it seeks to take advantage of layoffs in the tech industry.

 

*Eligibility for immigrants favors higher education and skilled work resumes. Its point system leads to a foreign-born population that is the best educated within the OECD. If accepted to the country, an immigrant is automatically on the path to citizenship.

 

*Seasonal workers (some with specific employer restrictions) who come for eight-month jobs often do so annually for 10-15 years.

 

*There are an increased number of border crossers into Canada, especially on the northern border of the USA. Asylum seekers in Canada can apply for work permits.

 

*Canada is not completely welcoming. It now bars foreigners for two years from buying residential properties in certain cities.

 

International: Other countries

 

*Latin America represents 8% of the world’s population and 1/3 of its homicides.

 

*In Honduras and El Salvador, remittances from those in the USA represent 20% of GDP. In Honduras,

2/3 of its nine million people are considered poor; 25% of families receive remittances. Total remittances from the USA to all countries are $80 billion, one-third of which go to those living in Mexico.

 

*Venezuela is hemorrhaging people, over seven million in total. Colombia has received 2.5 million and the USA, 95,000 (150,000 have been stopped).  Some 400,000 migrants (compared with an average of 10,000 per year in 2010-2020) have traversed the 70-mile Darien jungle between Colombia and Panama, 2,800 miles from the USA.  Indigenous populations in that area now experience contaminated water, garbage everywhere, and not infrequently, dead bodies.

 

*Special programs (up to 30,000 people per month) for Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua allow an immigrant to come to the USA on a two-year work permit if they have a private sponsor. The program has reduced illegal crossings from the latter two, but has had little impact on the former.  About one-third of households in Venezuela relay on remittances to survive.

 

*Developed countries are bidding for foreign workers; the world would be richer if poor people migrated to the former locations. At the same time, different developed nations are implementing tough anti-migrant measures. Political pressure is on mainstream parties from the growing influence of those to their right. Part of the political perception is a widespread fear that the type of immigrant coming to, e.g., a country in Europe, is not the skilled, at least semi-educated profile that is desired. Businesses may like lower wage entrants but the populace in general does not, and neither regards current policies as being structural resolutions.

 

*Germany is shortening the time needed for immigrants to get credentials as its 84 million population base is aging and not growing.

 

*In 2022, five million more people moved from less affluent to more affluent countries than vice-versa. This is 80% more than the pre-pandemic level. The United Kingdom’s net gain was 600,000, a record.

 

*The European Union has sent considerable funds to Tunisia, the purpose being to assist that country in handling immigrants from and passing through Tunisia.

 

Closing Comment

 

The USA is the only country in the world destined to be comprised of multiple minorities. Kudos!

 

At the same time, net immigration is providing all the population growth in the USA. Thus, agreement on immigrant policies is mandatory to (a) avoid a continuation of the current chaos at the border and in the system overall and to (b) establish something resembling stability in the specific approaches being implemented by the multiple government agencies involved with immigration.

 

Bringing DACA recipients into the fold would be a good step one. Providing temporary work visas for as many entrants as feasible would be a helpful step two. Adding resources to the asylum judge system is a necessary step three.   

 

Politically, there must be a two-party explicit recognition that a defensible border Is a necessary component of any immigration policy package. Both must sign off as well on a legitimate border being meaningless without other measures to make the immigrant a welcome addition to this country.